footballpreview81330

I’m not ready to crown Southern Cal the college football national champion so let’s break down all six BCS conferences and see who’s left standing.

The Pac-10 is the home of the dreaded Trojans, so let’s start there. USC plays some of its toughest games away -- Nebraska, Washington, Notre Dame, Oregon, Cal and Arizona State. I see the Men of Troy losing at least twice - maybe Oregon, Cal or Arizona State --possibly UCLA.

The Big 12 features mighty Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Texas must play TCU, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Texas Tech. At least one loss. Oklahoma’s out-of-league schedule is tougher but the Sooners have the best chance of anyone in the Big 12 at post-season BCS play.

The Big 10 is normally overrated with Michigan and Ohio State fighting it out. This year I don’t think the Buckeyes will be in the mix. Michigan is strong and Lloyd Carr may be on his last go-round. But I think Wisconsin is the team to beat. Penn State may play spoiler but watch the Badgers beat Ohio State on Nov. 3 and follow up the next week by taking Michigan in Madison. They’re my pick as one-half of the mythical college title game.

The SEC is loaded as always but its loaded from top to bottom in the east and four teams are strong in the west. Consequently nobody escapes unscathed. I’m not as crazy about LSU as everyone else -- it simply lost too much last year plus Les Miles may be thinking about the Michigan job. Florida loses at least twice. How about an SEC title game featuring Auburn and South Carolina? Maybe, maybe not. No one advances to the BCS title game from the SEC.

The ACC has Virginia Tech and . . . who? I admit that Florida State may be better but not national championship quality. Boston College never seems to get over the hump and Georgia Tech is, well, Georgia Tech.

And that brings us to the Big East, with two and possibly three major contenders. Let me say up front that I think West Virginia goes undefeated. Louisville may lose twice and Rutgers will again be a force to be taken seriously The Mountaineers play Louisville and Rutgers back-to-back in late October and early November.

That’s it. My National Championship Game is Wisconsin vs. West Virginia with the Mountaineers winning it all.

Tech: 7- or 8-win year. Duke: 'Oh-for-07'?

(8/29) What can one say positive about Duke football? Maybe try this -- Duke basketball is only two months off. I think it would be safe to say that the Blue Devils have the worst program of the 66 BCS teams. Head coach Ted Roof, a Georgia Tech graduate and Lawrenceville native, has gone steadily down, posting 2-9, 1-10 and 0-12 marks.

If there’s any good news, it’s that all 11 offensive starters return while five defensive guys are coming back. Thaddeus Lewis gave the Devils hope at quarterback as he threw for 2,135 yards as a freshman. The Devils suffered two one-point losses and a five-point setback last year so every outing wasn’t a disaster. Duke inexplicably plays seven away games this season with an out-of-conference schedule which includes UConn, Northwestern, Navy and Notre Dame. Oh-for-07 isn’t out of the question.

Georgia Tech fans feel with the subtraction of quarterback Reggie Ball and the addition of Taylor Bennett, the Yellow Jackets are primed for a strong showing. But really, think about it. Would coach Chan Gailey have played Ball over Bennett unless Ball was clearly better? Tashard Choice led the ACC in rushing last season and there’s no choice (get it?) but to hand it to him often.

The defense will be anchored by linebacker Philip Wheeler and defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta has a heavyweight reputation. With seven offensive starters and eight defensive guys back, Tech has a chance to win seven -- maybe eight if everything goes its way.

What to make of Miami? The Hurricanes have a new coach in Randy Shannon, who has no previous experience as the head guy. The ‘Canes finished an unheard of 6-6 last season, thus a new coach. If it helps any, nine starters return on offense including much-maligned quarterback Kylre Wright. In fact, all of its skill players are back.

An ambitious non-conference lineup which includes Marshall, Oklahoma and Texas A&M doesn’t bode well for any easy games and the Hurricanes must travel to Florida State, Virginia Tech and Boston College. It’s hard to imagine more wins than losses for Shannon’s first season.

Tomorrow: A look at the National Picture.

Big challenges for Butch Davis, Va. Tech

(8/28) Today, the ACC Coastal: North Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech.

North Carolina welcomes the much-sought-after Butch Davis as head coach. The Tar Heels return only nine starters, have no proven quarterback and just one proven receiver --and that alone is enough to challenge the best of coaches.

Davis recruited extremely well and major league help is on the way but there is a considerable learning curve at play here. T.J. Yates from Marietta has been named the starting quarterback for Carolina’s opener against James Madison but many feel Mike Paulus will be in that spot before the season ends. If looks have anything to do with it, watch out for freshman tailback Ryan Houston, a Herschel-lookalike at 6-foot-2, 243 pounds. I can see five wins, which would be progress compared to a 3-9 mark last season

Ah, Virginia will be under the microscope this season, or at least coach Al Groh will. The Cavaliers, under George Welsh, looked as it they might be ready to climb out of second tier status and become a real football program. So the powers ran off Welsh and recruited Groh, an alum. Since 2002, Groh has coached UVA steadily downward, culminating in a 5-7 finish in ‘06.

But as they say, this could be the year. The Wahoos return nine starters on offense and 10 on defense. Sophomore quarterback Jameel Sewell was brilliant for one so young last year, totaling 1,542 yards in nine starts. Defensive end Chris Long, son of Howie Long, is back along with counterpart Jeffrey Fitzgerald. UVA’s schedule is less than daunting, opening with Wyoming, Duke and North Carolina. It has only one tough game on the road - Georgia Tech on Sept. 22.

In the lower part of the state, Virginia Tech will be favored, at least by the fan nation, in every game it plays. The Hokie football team will try to bear the standard for a university thrown into despair after last spring’s massacre. I personally believe Frank Beamer has a winner

The Hokies return eight on offense including all of their skill players. The defense looks solid in all three areas. Linebacker Xavier Adibi should carry the defense and tailback Branden Ore is one of the top runners in the league. Given the added impetus of Beamer coaching his 200th victory this season, the Hokies could be exactly what the masses are pulling for them to be - a big time winner.

Tomorrow: More ACC Coastal.

Bowdens: New lineup for father Bobby;

same challenge for son Tommy: win or ...

(8/27) Today, the ACC Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson and Florida State.

Boston College’s new coach, Jeff Jagodzinski, inherits a team loaded for bear, a team that won 10 games last season and a team with the league’s top quarterback.

That quarterback, Matt Ryan, has plenty to work with in tailback L.V. Whitworth and wideout Kevin Challenger along with most of his offensive line returning. Defensively, the Eagles return nine.

With a break here and there and being able to adjust to a new coach, BC could easily win the Atlantic Division. It could climb high in the national rankings with an out-of-conference schedule featuring Army, Massachusetts, Bowling Green and Notre Dame. The bad news is that the Eagles must meet Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson away from home.

Florida State made lots of news in the off-season as the Seminoles replaced their entire offensive staff plus hired Chuck Amato back to coach defense. Jimbo Fisher will be calling the shots offensively and that can only help quarterback Drew Weatherford.

Although tailback Lorenzo Booker is gone, the ‘Noles have depth at running back and great receivers in De’Cody Fagg and Greg Carr.

Defensively, coach Mickey Andrews seems to always put up a good fight with last year being the exception. With eight starters returning including super corner Tony Carter, look for FSU to look like the good old days defensively. Again, Bobby Bowden isn’t holding back on his scheduling. FSU meets UAB, Colorado, Alabama and Florida in non-league games.

Clemson coach Tommy Bowden is once again expected to deliver more than he has in the past although he’s never had a losing season.

Offensively, the Tigers are hurting for experience with only four starters coming back, but the Clemson running back duo of James Davis and C.J. Spiller would have to be considered one of the best if not the best in the country. Clemson led the ACC in rushing and scoring last season.

Defensively, the Tigers bring back their linebacker corps intact but are missing pieces in the secondary and the D-Line. The Tigers have three laughers in non-league games and should be favored in four more, so Bowden should bring home another winner -- but will it be enough?

Tomorrow: The ACC Coastal.

What's in the wake of the Deacs' great season?

(8/24) Today, the ACC Atlantic: Maryland, North Carolina State and Wake Forest

These three teams are an interesting trio just because no one knows exactly what to expect this season.

Wake Forest surprised the nation last year by winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl. So the natural question is, were the Demon Deacons just a flash in the pan or is National Coach of the Year Jim Grobe building a legitimate year-after-year contender?

A question even more pressing is can quarterback Riley Skinner continue the success he enjoyed as a freshman last season when he led the ACC with a 65.8 percent pass completion mark while throwing for nine TDs and only five interceptions? The Deacs return eight starters on offense, but only five on defense. Part of Wake’s success last season was due to turnovers - it ranked sixth in the country in turnover margin. The defensive secondary lost three starters plus All-ACC linebacker Jon Abbate.

Will Wake win 11 games again this season? Probably not. Consider an out-of-conference schedule that includes Nebraska, Navy and Vanderbilt and away games at Boston College, Virginia and Clemson.

N.C. State fired Chuck Amato and lured Tom O’Brien away from Boston College - an upgrade for sure and a completely different coaching style. While Amato was shoot-from-the-hip, O’Brien is buttoned-up and disciplined.

The Wolfpack returns eight on offense but lost three offensive linemen. State defeated Boston College and Florida State on back-to-back weekends, but finished its season losing seven straight. That’s not going to happen with O’Brien. The Wolfpack has two excellent running backs and five good receivers. There’s enough experience on defense at each position that it might not be as bad as some fear. Quarterback Daniel Evans needs to cut down on interceptions. He threw for six scores but was picked off 11 times. I see a break-even season.

Somewhere along the way, Ralph Friedgen temporarily lost his magic in College Park. Friedgen came on like gang-busters in 2001 and put together three straight years of double-digit wins, going 10-2, 11-3 and 10-3. Then the Terps dipped below .500 for two season before rallying to a 9-4 finish in ‘06.

With a half dozen starters returning on each side of the ball, this year is a question mark.

The offensive line is down, the quarterback job is up in the air and linebacker and the defensive secondary lack experience. It’ll be a struggle for the Terps to win more than they lose.

Monday: The rest of the ACC Atlantic.

SEC East/Pt. 2: Watch the quarterbacks

(8/23) Today the SEC East: Florida, Georgia and Kentucky.

Talk about quarterbacks and each of these three teams is blessed. Maybe none more than Kentucky with Andre Woodson, the pre-season pick to head the All-SEC team.

The Wildcats are no longer the Mildcats with Rafael Little returning at tailback, Keenan Burton at wide receiver and Wesley Woodyard at linebacker. Kentucky finished 8-5 last season and won a bowl game. The best news is that it returns seven offensive starters and eight on defense.

Woodson enters the season with 162 consecutive passes without an interception. He had 31 TD passes in ‘06 with only seven interceptions. The problem is the schedule. Even with eight home games, Kentucky must play Louisville, at South Carolina, at Georgia and entertain LSU, Florida and Tennessee. Six wins maybe.

Georgia features Matt Stafford, a quarterback who endured on-the-job training last year and got better with each game. Now Stafford has a grip on Mark Richt’s offense. All the playmakers are back, including tailbacks Kregg Lumpkin and Thoms Brown, and super fullback Brannan Southerland. Receivers Mohamed Massaquoi, Sean Bailey and Mikey Henderson are athletic, but dropped too many passes last season.

The Bulldogs’ problem is lack of experience on both lines and the defensive secondary.

The Gators are America’s team - the team many Americans love to hate but that doesn’t seem to faze them. Exit four-year starting quarterback Chris Leak and enter backup Tim Tebow. Whomever backs Tebow up will have an important part in the offense that returns only five starters. But four of those five are on the offensive line, so Tebow should be able to stay healthy and find receiver Percy Harbin, who is a wrecking crew all unto himself.

The Gators’ Achilles is on defense where only starting strong safety Tony Joiner returns from ‘06. The talent is probably there but how quickly the new guys can adjust will be key.

Florida didn’t strain itself with out-of-conference opponents as Western Kentucky, Troy and Florida Atlantic join with FSU to furnish the opposition. It welcomes Tennessee the third weekend of the season, Auburn two weeks later, travels to LSU and Kentucky, and plays Georgia in Jacksonville. If the Gators are still together at the end of October, they could win the league.

Overall, the SEC should be a dog fight. I don’t necessarily believe LSU or Florida are locks. Watch for Auburn, South Carolina and yes, even Georgia.

Tomorrow: The ACC Atlantic.

SEC East/Pt. 1:Third year a charm for Spurrier?

(8/22) Today, the SEC East: South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Can Tennessee rejoin the elite of the SEC? Has the Evil Genius got the Gamecocks into position to really challenge for the SEC East title? Can Vanderbilt finally, finally finish the job it started two years ago and go to a bowl for the first time since 1982?

Questions, questions, questions. Who’s got answers?

Let’s start with Vanderbilt. Bobby Johnson is a capable coach but you know the saying --you can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear and that’s what’s Johnson’s charge is.

Every year, the Commodores are outmanned. Two years ago with Jay Cutler at quarterback, the ‘Dores looked like they were on the way, getting out of the gates at 4-0 but finished 5-6. Almost but not quite.

This year, Vandy has another hot-shot at quarterback in Chris Nickson, an excellent receiver in Earl Bennett and a mean linebacker in Jonathan Goff. But check the schedule. It plays Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee and Wake Forest. That’s at least six losses, maybe seven, assuming it wins the ones that are toss-ups or the ones they’re favored to win. Sorry. Maybe another year.

Tennessee simply dropped out of college football consciousness after 2004 - compiling an unbelievable 5-6 mark followed by 9-4. Not acceptable by Vol standards. Phillip Fulmer was on the ropes and may still be if his Big Orange doesn’t perform up to expectations.

But can they? I like Erik Ainge as a quarterback, LaMarcus Coker as a tailback, Jonathan Hefney as a defensive back and return specialist and Jerod Mayo as a linebacker. That said, Tennessee has a lot of rebuilding going on at both the offensive and defensive lines and no proven receiver.

Here’s the problem. UT opens at California, hosts Southern Miss and travels to Florida. Two weeks later, it travels to Georgia and then entertains Alabama. I can see a 2-4 start and the Big Orange group will be singing Rocky Top as Fulmer is tarred and feathered. This year is Big for the Big Guy.

South Carolina could be the darkhorse team just because this is Steve Spurrier’s third year and he’s operating with a veteran quarterback and a great understudy. The offense could be good if Blake Mitchell doesn’t earn himself bench time with bad throws and freshman receiver Chris Culliver develops quickly.

Running the ball should be no problem with tailbacks Cory Boyd and Mike Davis back. Tyrone Nix’ defense will keep the Gamecocks close.

I like USC better than Vandy or Tennessee but even Spurrier knows they’ve got a ways to go to really challenge for the SEC title.

Tomorrow, the rest of the east.

SEC West, Part 2: Hold (off on) those Tigers

(8/22) There’s one drink of Kool-Aid I refuse to take. LSU won’t play in the BCS Title Game. In fact, it is my firm belief that LSU won’t play in the SEC title game. Here’s why:

The Bengal Tigers lost No. 1 overall NFL draft pick JaMarcus Russell plus fellow first-rounders Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, both receivers. Plus safety LaRon Landry from last year. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher left for Florida State and tailback Alley Broussard quit, saying his heart wasn’t in it. And backup quarterback Ryan Perrilloux was arrested in May.

Plus, just between me and you, I’m not sold that Les Miles is Evil Genius II.

Other than that, I think the Tigers have a fine team, just not one to make it into the mythical championship game. On the positive side, the LSU defense is nasty, the recruiting was excellent and the schedule isn’t overwhelming. Most of the Tigers’ toughies are at home -- Auburn, Florida and Arkansas.

Ole Miss wasn’t great last season and won’t be great this season. The Rebels lost possibly the best player in the SEC with the graduation of Butkus-Award winning linebacker Patrick Willis. Fellow linebacker Rory Johnson might have won a few awards of his own had not Willis overshadowed everyone.

Offensively, the quarterback job is wide open since Tennessee transfer Brent Schaeffer didn’t turn out to be the answer last season. The Rebels have a proven runner in Benjarvus Green-Ellis who finished with 1,000 yards last season and he’ll be running behind a veteran offensive line but Ole Miss simply lost too much on defense to be too threatening in the west.

Poor Mississippi State and poor Sylvester Croom. The Bulldogs haven’t been able to be consistently competitive under Croom’s leadership and the Starkville fans are growing restless.

There is reason for some cautious optimism with the return from injury of quarterback Michael Henig and tailback Anthony Dixon is a bona fide major college runner.

I don’t see any marquee names on the defensive side of the ball so unless someone steps up, the offense could be better and still not be able to catch up.

Overall, the two Mississippi schools should finish in the bottom two slots of the west - you choose which goes where.

Looking at it from an objective standpoint, I see Auburn, LSU, Arkansas and Alabama claiming the first four spots and I’m not sure LSU will be second.

SEC-West, Part 1: Return of the 'A Team(s)'?

(8/20) Is there anyone out there who hasn’t heard that Nick Saban is now coaching Alabama and makes $4 million per year doing it?

Assuming we can move on, then, the question is whether Saban can make that big of a difference in wins and losses. Because if you take him out of the equation, there’s no reason to believe that Alabama will win big or beat Auburn.

John Parker Wilson has a snappy name, but he was sloppy with the ball last year. Wilson has two marvelous receivers in D.J. Hall and Keith Brown The offensive line is OK but that’s all.

Alabama and defense were once synonymous but the Tide averaged exactly one sack per game in ‘06. Saban is considered a defensive coach but there’s little experience here. The saving grace may be that his defensive staff is familiar with the scheme he favors. All have coached with him before.

Is there anyone out there who hasn’t heard about Arkansas’ off-season problems and the ensuing exit of both players and coaches? And that little bit about coach Houston Nutt’s

1,000-plus e-mails to a female TV anchor?

Assuming we can move on, then, the question si whether Nutt can pull his troops together and make them concentrate on the fall. If he can, the Razorbacks could be in a position to again win the SEC West Division title.

It’s for sure the Hogs will run the ball with Heisman Trophy runner-up Darren McFadden carrying the ball at least 25 times per outing and running mate Felix Jones getting the rest of the carries. Will quarterback Casey Dick throw the ball at all? Occasionally, but remember that Arkansas ranked 108th in the country in passing the last two years.

But you know what they say about one-dimensional teams, so the defensive unit had better be ready to give the ball to the offense in great field position. Six starters return on that side of the ball, but it’s missing its top pass rusher, cover corner and run stopper.

Is there anyone out there who hasn’t heard that Auburn has won five straight from the hated Crimson Tide and that Tommy Tuberville is a better coach than Tigers fans believe?

Assuming we can move on, then, the question is whether Auburn can finally take that big step and become an elite program. I know, the Tigers are 33-5 over the past three years and should be considered elite but they aren’t. Why? They were beaten badly last season by both Arkansas and Georgia. The year before, Georgia Tech shocked the Plainsmen in the opener and then the Tigers lost in overtime to LSU.

In other words, they’ve come close, but just haven’t been able to close the deal.

This year may be different with a healthy Brian Cox at quarterback and a bevy of runners, but receiver and the O line could be in better shape. Defensively Auburn is solid.

Maybe the Tigers will win the West but the question is which Tigers?

>Next: More SEC West

Here's why Norman's big on the Big East

(8/17) I love the Big East. This plucky little conference has had the last laugh at college football’s expense and it’s been wonderful.

As the league was going along minding its own business three seasons ago, it found itself watching Virginia Tech and Miami walk out on it and into bed with the ACC, with Boston College only a year away from doing the same.

In other words, the pirating ACC had absconded with all the football power the Big East possessed and left it to scramble to attract teams like Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida.

But something happened along the way. The Big East got stronger rather than weaker in football and the ACC hasn’t shown that it’s helped itself much with its stolen trio.

The Big East has had three teams in most pre-season polls I’ve seen and have had at least four Heisman Trophy candidates mentioned.

To me, West Virginia has more firepower than any team in the country and if true freshman tailback Noel Devine can step in and play right away, the Mountaineers will be even more awesome. Can you imagine a backfield with quarterback Patrick White, running back Steve Slaton and Devine? The Mounties have won 11 games the past two years and should be favored in all 12 contests this season.

Louisville, with quarterback Brian Brohm, will be snapping at West Virginia’s heels all year but with a new coach and losing four of its top five tacklers from last year, the Cardinals may be a little suspect. Offensively this team could average more than 40 points per game as it did two of the past three seasons, but it will be difficult to stop the juggernaut of West Virginia, especially having to play in Morgantown.

Rutgers looks to be strong again with Ray Rice leading the way offensively. Rice, a tailback, gained 1,794 yards last year and had five games of 170 yards or more. Some folks like quarterback Mike Teel better than I do. Six starters return to a defense which allowed only 14.3 points per outing.

South Florida will be very good but the Bulls won’t sneak up on anybody this year. They return nine players on offense, led by quarterback Matt Grothe, but USF’s strength is on the defense where speed is the name of the game. Maybe the quickest defensive unit in any conference.

The four Heisman candidates: West Virginia Slaton and White, Rutgers’ Rice and Louisville’s Brohm will make it any interesting season in the Little Conference That Could.

Wisconsin vs.Carr's retirement, JoePa's legacy

(8/16) It’s hard to find anyone in agreement this year as to who may have the upper hand in the Big 10. Some says it’s gotta be Michigan, with the possible retirement of Lloyd Carr playing into the mix. Others say Penn State is ready to make a run with Joe Paterno celebrating being on earth more than 80 years.

Others think Bret Bielema has Wisconsin ready to take the final step to being an elite program. Iowa has even been thrown into the pile. Ohio State is being picked second in the league by several publications but I can’t see that one. Too many folks are missing from ‘06.

I’m going with Wisconsin. The quarterback job may be a question mark but the Badgers look solid everywhere else. P.J. Hill is one of the two top rushers in the league and there’s lots of experience at receiver. The defense was one of the best in the country until the final three games when injuries cost them three straight losses. Bielema knows what he’s doing.

Michigan is tough to pick against just because Chad Henne is a year wiser at quarterback and he wasn’t bad for the last two seasons. Mike Hart is as good as Wisconsin’s Hill but will struggle to top last year’s 1,500 yards. Mario Manningham is a coach’s dream at wideout. The defense loses seven starters but is stacked with talent at all positions.

Penn State wants to win one for JoePa - one Big 10 title, that is. Quarterback Anthony Morelli may be the second best quarterback in the league and Deon Butler is definitely one of the top receivers. Four of their five toughest games are at home but the Nittany Lions must travel to Ann Arbor on Sept. 22.

To me, there’s a definite drop-off after these three with Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue and Illinois set to fight it out in the middle with Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota fighting to stay off the bottom.

If I had to arrange them in some kind of order, I’d say Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois for fourth through seventh place while Indiana is eighth, Northwestern ninth and Michigan State fends off Minnesota for the bottom rung.

If anyone out of this league should have a shot at the National Title game, it would be the winner of the Michigan-Wisconsin game on Nov. 10.

Tomorrow: The Big East

A dozen reasons (almost) not to pick Texas

(8/15) It’s easy to pick Texas to win the South Division of the Big XII and Nebraska to win the North. Easy but I’m not doing it.

For Missouri, quarterback Chace Daniel might be the most underrated signal-called in the league. And remember, the Show-Mes lost three last-second games in 2006 or they would have ended the season at 11-2. The Tigers’ schedule is tough but they got a break by getting to play Nebraska at home. I think they could finished atop the North.

And speaking of Nebraska, the Cornhuskers will be in the top two in the North but return only 11 starters from last season. Unfortunately, they play their two toughest games (Texas and Missouri) on the road.

Colorado and Kansas State should fight it out for third in the North. Colorado probably has the toughest schedule in the league while Kansas State has the easiest, so you pick ‘em.

The South may not belong to Texas as many folks believe. Bob Stoops has been at Oklahoma long enough to have the Sooners looking for those glory days they enjoyed for so many years. Stoops might have had things back last year had he not lost Rhett Bomar, his starting quarterback, to NCAA violations before the season.

Oklahoma has 15 starters returning to a team that outgained Big XII opponents by almost a 100 yards per outing. With DeMarco Murray running and Malcolm Kelly catching, the Sooners may have enough offense to make their excellent defensive unit proud.

Colt McCoy has a wonderful name but I think that has a lot to do with how highly he’s touted as a quarterback on the national stage. Don’t get me wrong; he’s good but just not that good. The ‘Horns have an outstanding team on both sides of the ball but their two toughest contests aren’t in Austin. They meet Oklahoma at a neutral site and Texas A&M in College Station.

Third place is a toss-up for me between Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.

The Aggies really need to have a big year to give coach Dennis Franchione some restful nights. Oklahoma State welcomes back a powerful offensive team more-or-less intact from ‘06, but return only five defensive starters.

If I read it right, it’ll be Missouri taking on Oklahoma in the conference title game but I can hedge my bets enough to say it might be Texas vs. Nebraska. Either way, I’ve got a feeling that nobody from this league will be playing for the national title.

>Tomorrow: The Big East Conference.

Pac-10 is more than just USC this season

(8/14) There was a time, and not very long ago either, when the Pac-10 seldom entered into the college football consciousness.

Weak league, usually only UCLA or Southern Cal had any impact on the scene and the rest of the league was just that -- the rest of the league.

Today, the Pac-10 isn’t your grandfather’s Pac-10. I’m not saying top to bottom it’s the strongest conference in the country but it’s better than the two-team offering it used to be.

If by now you don’t know that Southern Cal is the heavy favorite to win the mythical college national title, you’ve been asleep for a very long time.

John David Booty is the quarterback of a team that returns 16 starters, making it the most veteran squad Coach Pete Carroll has had in Los Angeles. Of those starters, 10 come back on the defensive side of the ball. Since the Trojans haven’t had a problem on offense yet, that makes them bad news for the left side of the country. In the past four seasons, the men of Troy have finished 1, 1, 2 and 4 in the AP standings.

The USC schedule is relatively tough with games against Oregon, Cal and Arizona State on the road, but they could come out of Pac-10 play with a perfect record and take home their sixth consecutive conference title. Again, everything is relative. Idaho, Nebraska and Notre Dame will furnish the out-of-conference competition, which is only a fair test at best.

I like Oregon as the runnerup to the Trojans. Maybe I’m influenced by its ugly uniforms but how can you pull against a team which calls themselves the Ducks?

If quarterback Dennis Dixon improves and tailback Jonathan Stewart picks up where he left off, Oregon could be one of the most surprising teams in the country.

UCLA beat Southern Cal last season in both teams' last game Plus the Bruins may be the only team in the land returning two starting quarterbacks. Regular starter Ben Olson was injured half way through last year and Patrick Cowan stepped in without causing the Bears to miss a beat.

Arizona State is a question mark but with Dennis Erickson calling the shots from the sidelines, anything can happen, usually positive things.

Lots of folks like the Cal Bears in the league but I’m not one of them. Cal’s schedule doesn’t bode well and the team lost 23 upperclassmen from last season and return only 13 starters.

The two Washington teams and Stanford will fight it out for the bottom rung.

Overall, USC may win the conference but I don’t think the Trojans will be 12-0 when the bowl assignments are handed out. Look for at least one and possibly two loses -- Oregon State and UCLA may do the honors.

>Tomorrow: Big 12

The Xs and Os behind our preseason coverage

(8/13) Over the next 15 days, we’ll take a close look at college football for the upcoming season. We’ll do it conference-by-conference and in some cases, team by team.

Obviously with 119 teams playing Division I football, it would be impossible to analyze each one, so in the case of the Pac-10, Big 12, Big 10 and Big East, we’ll take an overall look, talk about the favorites and make some predictions. I’ll spend one day on each of these leagues.

The Southeastern Conference will take four days as I’ll break down the SEC West and the SEC East, three teams at a time. Same thing for the Atlantic Coast Conference -- two days on the ACC Atlantic Division and two days on the ACC Coastal Division. I’ll finish with a National Preview on Thursday, Aug. 30.

That will take us to Friday, Aug. 31, when the first installment of Norman’s No-Nos will be offered where I pick the losers in 15 top games.

Last year, I picked correctly 78 percent of the time, a personal record..

During the course of the college football season, I would love to hear from you with suggestions about upcoming commentaries, your comments on past commentaries or if you agree or disagree. The e-mail is normanarey@earthlink.net.

So here’s the schedule: Tomorrow, I’ll discuss the Pac-10, the home of Southern Cal, the overwhelming favorite to win the mythical national title. Wednesday, we’ll take a quick look at the Big 12; Thursday, The Big 10; and finish up the week by analyzing the Big East. This is an interesting league with three teams in the pre-season Top 25 and at least three and possibly four Heisman Trophy candidates.

The following week, Aug. 20-24, we look at the SEC West Monday and Tuesday, the SEC East Wednesday and Thursday and end on Friday be examining three teams from the ACC Atlantic.

The final week, Aug. 27-31, we’ll finish the ACC Atlantic on Monday, then look at the ACC Coastal Tuesday and Wednesday, do our National Preview Thursday and Norman’s No-Nos on Friday.

The college season opens with a full slate of games the following day.

Got all that? Hope you were taking notes.

I think it would add so much to our coverage this season if you take part in it and I hope you will e-mail me. Again, the address is normanarey@earthlink.net.

So let the games begin.

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Weekdays commentaries: 8:15 a.m., 12:25, 5:15 p.m.

February

January

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>Coming Friday: Your first Norman's No-No's of the season