ON THE LEFT

Graham Dixon, partner and associate broker for Lambert, Dixon & Tate Real Estate in Rome, is vice chair for campaigns and finance for the Floyd County Democratic Party and has worked as treasurer and advisor on several successful political campaigns. Dixon serves as a Rome/Floyd County planning commissioner and as president of the Greater Rome Board of Realtors.

First of a three-part look at Campaign 2010

'10 overview: David Poythress, DuBose Porter

in a Democratic gubernatorial showdown

The 2010 election will be among us before we know it and the action will all be at the state level this go around. Gov. Sonny Perdue is barred from a third term by the state constitution so he is out of the equation. Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (Republican) already has announced his intentions to seek the seat and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (Republican) has all but officially thrown his hat into the ring. While those are both Republican candidates and pontification for that side is better left to my cohort Adam Clemons, it helps to set the stage by mentioning them.

It appears that 2010 will see several of the state constitutional offices in play. The dominoes that will fall if Cagle and Oxendine both seek the GOP nomination for governor could affect Lieutenant Governor, Insurance Commissioner, Attorney General and Secretary of Labor.

The best parlor game since trying to guess whom President-elect Obama would tap for vice president has been debating whether or not former Gov. Roy Barnes would jump into the race in an attempt to return the governor's mansion to the Democratic Party. While he is the most well-known and the most capable of raising the money necessary for a run, many party insiders feel he's just not interested.

I’m not exactly sure how the state constitution is worded but I believe one can only serve two terms as governor not just two consecutive terms. If that is true, since Barnes has already served one term, the most he could gain would be a single term. Additionally, when he was last governor, the state House and state Senate were both controlled by the Democrats. The idea of being the governor without a majority in either of the legislative houses is not nearly as appealing as the situation Barnes experienced during his first term. For all these reasons, I imagine he’d be inclined not to get in the race.

Also, on the Democratic side, former Secretary of State and former Labor Commissioner David Poythress has already announced, hired a campaign manager (Rome's own Wendy Davis) and has a campaign event scheduled in Atlanta next week. He's probably the most well-known statewide of potential Democratic nominees (aside from Roy Barnes); however, it's still very early in the game.

State Rep. and Minority Leader DuBose Porter also is assumed to be interested in the top job while other familiar names like Cathy Cox (former Secretary of State), Michael Thurmond (Labor Commissioner), and Thurbert Baker (Attorney General) are also on the radar as possible candidates.

My speculation is that Barnes sits this race out and leaves the field wide open for a real primary battle for the Democratic nomination. I also doubt Cathy Cox will enter the race as she is said to be very happy as president of Young Harris College. Additionally, Cox's 2006 primary challenger and former Lt. Gov. Mark "The Big Guy" Taylor is said to be done with politics. That leaves Porter, Thurmond and Baker as possible opponents for Poythress.

I think once all is said and done, Thurmond and Baker will sit this race out as they both have safe "seats" where they are and there is really no reason for either of them to relinquish their current position to fight in a campaign in which the electorate leans to the Republican candidate statewide. That leaves Poythress and Porter to duke it out in the primary where they will be the front-runners against some other much-lesser-known opponents consisting of probably an obscure state senator and/or a former mayor. There likely will be a run-off, as usual, and whomever triumphs will have a battle ahead of them against either Cagle or Oxendine on the Republican side.

Two names that I’ve heard that I don’t believe will enter the race are Jim Martin and Shirley Franklin. Two years ago I would have bet anyone that Franklin would be in the race. However, some rather well-publicized scandals and a LOT of international travel have hurt her image. While she was an excellent mayor of Atlanta, she probably needs to take a break for a while. I have no doubt she’s far from finished with politics, though.

Martin, on the other hand, probably could do well in the race with his successful track record of obtaining the Democratic Party nomination for lieutenant governor in 2006 and the U.S. Senate nomination in 2008. The problem for Martin, though, is that after losing back-to-back elections, it would be very difficult to raise money. It must be very difficult to call a supporter who has given you money twice only to see you lose and ask for more support. Jim would probably be a very good governor; however, it’s a bit too soon for him to run for anything else. If he does run for anything in 2010, I’d expect it to be Insurance Commissioner or Lieutenant Governor and not the top spot.

It’s early but if I had to choose today how the ballot would look on General Election day of 2010, I’d say Cagle vs. Poythress for governor.

ON THE RIGHT

Dr. Adam B. Clemons is a local educator with a doctorate in educational leadership. He also is the owner of ABC Design, a Republican political consulting and advertising firm. He has served in various capacities on federal, state and local GOP campaigns. He lives in Rome with his wife and two children. 

First of a three-part look at Campaign 2010

Oh, domino: A legion of locals could be in

play depending on who runs for what

Campaign ’10 has officially started. Actually, it started for several candidates in early 2008.

For the race of Georgia’s governor, it is a well-known fact that Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine will run for the top spot. I look for Secretary of State Karen Handel, House Majority Leader Jerry Keen and at least one or two congressmen to jump in. I have even heard that if the field gets crowded enough, U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson may change his mind and give it a try.

Regardless, expect a crowded field.

With Cagle already formulating a campaign team and raising money, state senators Eric Johnson and David Shafer have all but announced their intention to run for lieutenant governor. For Christmas ’08, Shafer sent every member of the state GOP executive committee, including yours truly, a mass produced Christmas card. Sen. Chip Rogers, a radio personality and anti-illegal immigration advocate, may have struck a deal with Johnson to stay out of the race in exchange to become the next President Pro Temp or Majority Leader.

Oxendine’s run should cause a few state House and state Senate members to run for this spot. Oxendine has held this spot for a long time. I have not heard one rumor as to who might jump in once the Ox formally announces but I would like to see Calhoun’s state Rep. John Meadows jump into that race. Meadows is well liked by many -- he has never had a contested race for state House -- and is a strong conservative with an insurance background.

If our own Congressman Phil Gingrey should jump into the race (or the lieutenant governor's race), the domino effect in Northwest Georgia would be stupefying.

It is likely that either state Sen. Preston Smith, state Rep. Barry Loudermilk or Floyd County Commissioner Chad Whitefield would jump into the race. Should Smith jump in, Loudermilk and Whitefield, as well as anyone else from every county in the district but Cobb, would probably stay out. Smith, originally being from Cobb and having lots of connections in many circles, would surely be the frontrunner.

Should Smith jump into a congressional race, Floyd County Commissioner Eddie Lumsden, former Rome Mayor Ronnie Wallace, state Rep. Katie Dempsey, Loudermilk and Whitefield would also give serious thought to running for the senate seat. Should Dempsey jump in, Whitefield would be the frontrunner for the Rome House seat.

Should there be a crowded field hailing mostly from Floyd County, it would essentially be Loudermilk’s to lose the nomination because of his strong support in Bartow and east Floyd, where most of the district’s Republican base is located. He would also appeal to a very conservative block in the Gordon portion of the senate district, and he has a strong following in the home-school community.

Lumsden, with strong ties to many rural areas of Floyd and strong name identification, might be Loudermilk’s strongest primary foe from Floyd, with Dempsey and Wallace splitting the fiscal conservative vote of Rome.

If Karen Handel goes for the top spot, the position of secretary of state might generate a couple of candidates from the state House and Senate. Senators Chip Rogers (previously mentioned) and Tommie Williams might jump in, possibly making way for our own Senator Smith to move up in the leadership of the Senate if he decided to run for re-election. House Rep. Jerry Keen would be better off if he ran for Handel’s spot rather than Sonny’s.

Lastly, what if Isakson changes his mind and wants to be one of one instead of one of 100? This might mean Sonny decides Washington might just be a place for him since he was passed for the VP spot. He would probably have opposition from Congressman Lynn Westmoreland or Jack Kingston. Sonny’s sin tax increases and controversial Go Fish initiative would be good leverage for any primary opponent.

Let the ’10 campaign being!